Friday, July 13, 2012

The Numbers Say Obama is Toast

By Jack Kelly

Last week in the RealClear Politics average of polls, 46.6 per cent approved of the job President Obama is doing; 48.9 percent disapprovedThe key fact liberal journalists try to hide, Jay said, is that no president with a job approval rating below 50 percent has ever been re-elected.

Zero is in worse shape than this indicates, because many polls over-sample Democrats.  But even in the slanted polls, the truth is there if you know what to look for:

*In a Washington Post poll released Tuesday, only 24 percent of respondents were Republicans.  But even in that poll, 54 percent disapproved of the job Obama is doing
on the economy.  In the presidential race, Romney and Zero were tied at 47 percent.  Among independents, Zero trailed Romney by 14 percentage points.

*A Zogby poll for the Washington Times released Monday had Romney leading, 43-42.  A small plurality said they agreed with the Supreme Court's Obamacare ruling, but the poll found 45 percent of self-identified independents said they are less likely to support the president now after the ruling.  Just 20 percent said the ruling made them more likely to back him.

*A poll by Pulse Opinion Research for The Hill newspaper  released Monday found that 56 percent of respondents think Obama has transformed the country - for the worse.

*Zero is sinking to historic lows among blue collar men, said Ron Brownstein of the National Journal.

*The Dems are bleeding voters in the swing states, according to a Bloomberg News analysis.

*According to Gallup's tracking poll, only 51 percent of Americans aged 18-29 approve of the job Obama is doing, down from 70 percent in the first week of July, 2009.
Elections are about numbers, and right now the president's are bad, Karl Rove wrote Thursday.  Only 37 percent of white voters approve of the job Zero is doing, Jay Cost found.  That's much less than what Michael Dukakis and John Kerry got in their losing races.  And, compared to them, Zero isn't doing so hot among minorities, either.

If the economy improves, so may Obama's job approval.  But it looks as if it's headed further south - maybe down Tierra del Fuego way.

Small business confidence fell in June to the lowest level in eight months.  The "perfect storm" of economic calamities that portend a depression  is happening now, says economist Nouriel Roubini. A deteriorating economy means a comfortable Romney win, says the bank BBVA Compass.

Even the polls which oversample Democrats show the race as a dead heat, which, in the second week in July, is a remarkably strong position for a challenger. There's always a stature gap between the challenger and the incumbent - who is, after all, the president - which usually doesn't close until after the out party's nominating convention.  At this point in 1980, Jimmy Carter had a comfortable lead over Ronald Reagan.

A tie now is even worse for Zero than it appears at first glance, because Team Obama and allied SuperPacs have spent $91 million in eight swing states attacking Romney as a rich, out of touch outsourcer of jobs - and barely moved the needle.

The Bain Capital attacks haven't worked, Ed Morrissey said, because: "even the WaPo/ABC poll shows that half of voters don't care, and only 24% in a sample with 33% being Democrats think it constitutes a reason to vote against Romney."

No comments:

Post a Comment