Sunday, June 17, 2012

Top Las Vegas Oddsmaker Predicts Election Results

Wayne Allyn Root
May 30, 2012
Town Hall Alert

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or
prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am
neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a
well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of
predicting political races.

Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both
Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to
the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential
candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally
conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history.
Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don't
believe it's possible to turnaround America.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking
political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them
as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I
predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney
trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman
Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP
nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race
between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on
election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney
victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points
to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most
pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my
gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch
to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for
an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared
about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His
endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going
Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008.
This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If
Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10%
to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news
for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish
voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish
support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60's. This is not good news for

*Youth voters. Obama's biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years
ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are
disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is
long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual
voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won't
happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the
Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic
Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around,
and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small
business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and
supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to "give someone different a chance."
I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone
who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private sector in a
big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends
didn't listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of
small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good
news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working
class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about
the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn't's having a job to pay for
contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms. They are worried about
putting food on the table. They fear for their children's future. This is
not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by
24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they
disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will
anyone in America wake up on election day saying "I didn't vote for Obama 4
years ago. But he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him
today." Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense
small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a
world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's
Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I'll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that
familiarity breeds contempt.

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