Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Can Obama Really Win With These Numbers?

At 46% approval, Gallup’s new numbers show Barack Obama is still under the 50% he needs for re-election.  With the exception of Harry Truman, no president has been re-elected with a sub 50% approval rating. The rest of Gallup’s message holds more bad news for Obama.

He hasn’t averaged 50% approval for a full month since last May when we killed bin Laden.  His previous full month of 50% approval was February 2010.

Gallup reports that the much talked about BIG lead Obama has with women really isn’t very big at all. In 2008, Obama won women 56/43. Al Gore and John Kerry both won women (with 54% and 51% respectively), and both lost anyway.

Today, Gallup says Obama’s approval with women is at 49%; this is off 7 points since 2008.

In 2008, Obama won 18 – 29 year olds 66/31; they now approve of Obama at just a 54% rate. He won Hispanics 67/31, but that’s down to 55% approval. Although only 45% of those over 65 voted for Obama, that’s down to 41%. Working your “retirement” as a Walmart greeter will do that.

Overall, Democrat support has fallen 3 points to 83%, which is important because it is moving in the wrong direction. His support among independents has shrunk to 42%, a 10 point slip from 2008.

Obama has even lost 6 points (95%, now 89%) among blacks.  Of course, this number will balloon to 100% on Election Day, but how can this be helpful to his re-election? The problem with this number and the numbers for 18 to 29 year olds is enthusiasm to vote. Among both groups, it is down sharply.

In March 2008, 78% of blacks were enthusiastic to vote, and 76% of young voters were enthusiastic to vote. Today, only 48% of both groups are enthusiastic. This is why the Left is carrying on the Zimmermen/Martin circus.

Obama captured 43% of the overall white vote in 2008; now, Gallup reports that his approval among whites (the largest voting bloc) is 37%.

Obama has lost ground with every group, is 7 points off with women, and under 50% in terms of overall approval.

Maybe Gallup needs to glue the happy face mask on Obama’s campaign. That seems like the only way it will stick.

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